Market Positioning Brief: May 11, 2026
Good morning. Mixed sentiment in the macro backdrop as we review the latest institutional positioning from CFTC data. Today's briefing covers 435 markets with a focus on significant positioning changes, flip signals, and extreme readings that may indicate crowded positioning.
Top Positioning Movers
1. Dogecoin - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (168DC1) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +31.8 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.79 points
- Bias Score: 1.00
- Positioning Percentile: 4.8
- Crowding State: crowded long
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded long.
2. Pjm Peco Da Offpk Fixed - Ice Futures Energy Div (0643D1) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +43.0 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.27 points
- Bias Score: 0.95
- Positioning Percentile: 93.6
- Crowding State: crowded long
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded long.
3. Argus Far East Propane - Ice Futures Energy Div (066413) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +26.2 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +0.73 points
- Bias Score: -0.06
- Positioning Percentile: 89.7
- Crowding State: balanced
- Reasoning: Positioning is drifting back toward balance. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Positioning looks balanced rather than crowded.
4. Cardona Perp Style - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (174LM2) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +34.1 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +0.72 points
- Bias Score: 0.45
- Positioning Percentile: 30.0
- Crowding State: moderate crowding
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Positioning is noticeable but not yet extreme.
5. Cardona - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (174LM1) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: -12.2 (state: neutral)
- Weekly Change: -0.65 points
- Bias Score: -0.54
- Positioning Percentile: 85.7
- Crowding State: moderate crowding
- Reasoning: Bearish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Positioning is noticeable but not yet extreme.
Flip Alerts
1. Argus Far East Propane - Ice Futures Energy Div: Flipped to NET LONG this week
2. Coffee Calendar Spread Options - Ice Futures U.S.: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
3. Crude Diff-Tmx Sw 1A Index - Ice Futures Energy Div: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
4. Crude Oil Cal Spread Options - New York Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET LONG this week
5. E-Mini S&P Communication Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
Extreme Positioning Warnings
1. US 10Y Note: 93th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 93th percentile (historically high)
2. 1K Shib - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc: 100th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 100th percentile (historically high)
3. 2 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade: 7th percentile (bearish extreme) — Net positioning at 7th percentile (historically low)
4. Aeco Fin Basis - Ice Futures Energy Div: 100th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 100th percentile (historically high)
5. Aep Dayton Hub Da Peak Daily - Ice Futures Energy Div: 2th percentile (bearish extreme) — Net positioning at 2th percentile (historically low)
Crowding Analysis
No crowding warnings today.
Cross-Asset Summary
Across tracked markets: 173 showing bullish positioning (>+20 signal), 37 showing bearish positioning (<-20 signal). See the heatmap for detailed breakdown by asset class.
Today's Watchlist
- Flips to watch: Argus Far East Propane - Ice Futures Energy Div, Coffee Calendar Spread Options - Ice Futures U.S., Crude Diff-Tmx Sw 1A Index - Ice Futures Energy Div
- Extreme positioning: US 10Y Note, 1K Shib - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc, 2 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade
Signal data: May 11, 2026
CFTC COT report: May 5, 2026