Market Positioning Brief: May 04, 2026
Good morning. Mixed sentiment in the macro backdrop as we review the latest institutional positioning from CFTC data. Today's briefing covers 435 markets with a focus on significant positioning changes, flip signals, and extreme readings that may indicate crowded positioning.
Top Positioning Movers
1. Dogecoin - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (168DC1) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +31.8 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.79 points
- Bias Score: 1.00
- Positioning Percentile: 4.8
- Crowding State: crowded long
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded long.
2. Russell 2000 Annual Dividend - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (239750) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +43.0 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.54 points
- Bias Score: 1.00
- Positioning Percentile: 100.0
- Crowding State: crowded long
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded long.
3. Pjm Peco Da Offpk Fixed - Ice Futures Energy Div (0643D1) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +43.0 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.27 points
- Bias Score: 0.95
- Positioning Percentile: 93.6
- Crowding State: crowded long
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded long.
4. Washington Carbon All V2026 - Ice Futures Energy Div (0063EA) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: +6.4 (state: neutral)
- Weekly Change: -0.98 points
- Bias Score: 0.02
- Positioning Percentile: 71.4
- Crowding State: balanced
- Reasoning: Positioning is drifting back toward balance. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Positioning looks balanced rather than crowded.
5. Henry Hub Basis - Ice Futures Energy Div (0233AG) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: -27.4 (state: bearish)
- Weekly Change: -0.90 points
- Bias Score: -0.88
- Positioning Percentile: 0.5
- Crowding State: crowded short
- Reasoning: Bearish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded short.
Flip Alerts
1. E-Mini S&P Communication Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET LONG this week
2. E-Mini S&P Health Care Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
3. E-Mini S&P Technology Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
4. Eur Style Natural Gas Options - New York Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
5. Euro Short Term Rate - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
Extreme Positioning Warnings
1. US 10Y Note: 99th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 99th percentile (historically high)
2. 10 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade: 4th percentile (bearish extreme) — Net positioning at 4th percentile (historically low)
3. 1K Shib - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc: 100th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 100th percentile (historically high)
4. 2 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade: 7th percentile (bearish extreme) — Net positioning at 7th percentile (historically low)
5. 5 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade: 8th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 8th percentile (historically low)
Crowding Analysis
No crowding warnings today.
Cross-Asset Summary
Across tracked markets: 163 showing bullish positioning (>+20 signal), 33 showing bearish positioning (<-20 signal). See the heatmap for detailed breakdown by asset class.
Today's Watchlist
- Flips to watch: E-Mini S&P Communication Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange, E-Mini S&P Health Care Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange, E-Mini S&P Technology Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
- Extreme positioning: US 10Y Note, 10 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade, 1K Shib - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc
Signal data: May 4, 2026
CFTC COT report: April 28, 2026