Lumber - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
058644Signal state
8-Week Trend
Generated market from CFTC archives.
Signal layer
Score breakdown
How the +100 to -100 conviction score is calculated
Macro Score
+40 ptsTarget Exposure
-17%Market History
Net Positioning History
Historical net positioning (Longs minus Shorts) for the reference trader group.
| Lumber - Chicago Mercantile Exchange — Managed Money — 6 Month Positioning Report | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report Date | Long Positions | Short Positions | Change in Longs | Change in Shorts | Net Positions | Net Change | % OI Long | % OI Short | Open Interest |
| Max | 567 | 6,987 | +426 | +1,429 | -3,628 | +1,753 | 6.8% | 65.6% | 11,310 |
| Min | 135 | 4,195 | -182 | -1,327 | -6,724 | -1,508 | 1.2% | 46.6% | 8,285 |
| 13 Per. Avg | 313 | 5,980 | +13 | +30 | -5,667 | -17 | 3.2% | 60.0% | 9,963 |
| May 26, 2026 | 471 | 5,597 | +28 | +12 | -5,126 | +16 | 5.0% | 59.1% | 9,474 |
| May 19, 2026 | 443 | 5,585 | +170 | -133 | -5,142 | +303 | 4.7% | 59.7% | 9,361 |
| May 12, 2026 | 273 | 5,718 | +0 | -165 | -5,445 | +165 | 2.9% | 59.7% | 9,579 |
| May 5, 2026 | 273 | 5,883 | +0 | -314 | -5,610 | +314 | 2.8% | 59.4% | 9,913 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 273 | 6,197 | +0 | +244 | -5,924 | -244 | 2.6% | 58.5% | 10,589 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 273 | 5,953 | +0 | -57 | -5,680 | +57 | 2.6% | 56.9% | 10,469 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | 273 | 6,010 | +0 | +147 | -5,737 | -147 | 2.6% | 56.8% | 10,581 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 273 | 5,863 | -143 | +595 | -5,590 | -738 | 2.7% | 57.8% | 10,141 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 416 | 5,268 | +153 | -369 | -4,852 | +522 | 4.5% | 57.3% | 9,198 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 263 | 5,637 | -81 | -762 | -5,374 | +681 | 2.8% | 60.6% | 9,307 |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 344 | 6,399 | +81 | -588 | -6,055 | +669 | 3.5% | 65.2% | 9,820 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 263 | 6,987 | +35 | +345 | -6,724 | -310 | 2.5% | 65.6% | 10,658 |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 228 | 6,642 | -79 | +1,429 | -6,414 | -1,508 | 2.2% | 63.6% | 10,435 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 307 | 5,213 | -147 | +844 | -4,906 | -991 | 3.2% | 54.6% | 9,555 |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 454 | 4,369 | +7 | -32 | -3,915 | +39 | 5.0% | 47.8% | 9,149 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 447 | 4,401 | +62 | +111 | -3,954 | -49 | 4.9% | 47.7% | 9,223 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 385 | 4,290 | -182 | +95 | -3,905 | -277 | 4.3% | 48.0% | 8,930 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 567 | 4,195 | +6 | -790 | -3,628 | +796 | 6.8% | 50.6% | 8,285 |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 561 | 4,985 | +426 | -1,327 | -4,424 | +1,753 | 6.0% | 53.6% | 9,304 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 135 | 6,312 | +0 | +537 | -6,177 | -537 | 1.3% | 61.9% | 10,190 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 135 | 5,775 | +0 | +529 | -5,640 | -529 | 1.3% | 57.4% | 10,054 |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 135 | 5,246 | -41 | +100 | -5,111 | -141 | 1.3% | 50.6% | 10,371 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 176 | 5,146 | +41 | -121 | -4,970 | +162 | 1.7% | 48.8% | 10,549 |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 135 | 5,267 | +0 | -246 | -5,132 | +246 | 1.2% | 46.6% | 11,310 |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 135 | 5,513 | +0 | +25 | -5,378 | -25 | 1.2% | 50.1% | 11,004 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 135 | 5,488 | +0 | +0 | -5,353 | +0 | 1.3% | 51.8% | 10,601 |
COT report
Longs vs shorts by trader category — week by week
Browse the official CFTC report week by week to see how each trader group's positioning has shifted. The WoW Δ column shows the net contract change from the prior week.
| Trader type | Long | Short | Net | Long % OI | Short % OI | Net % OI | WoW Δ Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Managed Money Reference group used for the main bias model | 471 | 5,597 | -5,126 | +5.0% | +59.1% | -54.1% | +16 |
Producer Merchant | 5,983 | 1,055 | 4,928 | +63.1% | +11.1% | +52.0% | +113 |
Other Reportables | 1,445 | 895 | 550 | +15.3% | +9.4% | +5.8% | -20 |
Swap Dealers | 653 | 1,032 | -379 | +6.9% | +10.9% | -4.0% | +3 |
Nonreportable | 791 | 764 | 27 | +8.3% | +8.1% | +0.3% | -111 |
Interpretation layer
Why the terminal reads this market the way it does
The platform turns the underlying scores into a readable narrative: pressure, confirmation, macro support, and crowding.
Positioning pressure
The market is leaning bearish. This week looks steady versus the recent range.
Trend check
Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet.
Macro check
Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning.
Crowding
Crowding is elevated, so conviction is high but squeeze risk is rising.
Current positioning
The market is leaning bearish. Crowding is elevated, so conviction is high but squeeze risk is rising. Managed Money is currently net short by 5,126 contracts.
Macro regime
Macro signals are modestly supportive for Lumber - Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Replay summary
Mixed regime. The market is leaning bearish. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning.
Risk layer
Veto reasons and caution flags
These are the conditions that reduce conviction even when the raw positioning signal looks strong.