Market Positioning Brief: May 18, 2026
Good morning. Mixed sentiment in the macro backdrop as we review the latest institutional positioning from CFTC data. Today's briefing covers 435 markets with a focus on significant positioning changes, flip signals, and extreme readings that may indicate crowded positioning.
Top Positioning Movers
1. Dogecoin - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (168DC1) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: -28.0 (state: bearish)
- Weekly Change: -1.93 points
- Bias Score: -0.93
- Positioning Percentile: 1.6
- Crowding State: crowded short
- Reasoning: Bearish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded short.
2. Hedera Perp Style - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (180LM4) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: -30.0 (state: bearish)
- Weekly Change: -1.39 points
- Bias Score: -0.79
- Positioning Percentile: 7.1
- Crowding State: elevated crowding
- Reasoning: Bearish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Crowding is elevated, so conviction is high but squeeze risk is rising.
3. Pjm Peco Da Offpk Fixed - Ice Futures Energy Div (0643D1) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +43.0 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.27 points
- Bias Score: 0.95
- Positioning Percentile: 93.6
- Crowding State: crowded long
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded long.
4. Ercot.Hb_North_Month_7X8_Rtp - Nodal Exchange (064GBD) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: -23.8 (state: neutral)
- Weekly Change: -1.23 points
- Bias Score: -0.87
- Positioning Percentile: 25.4
- Crowding State: crowded short
- Reasoning: Bearish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded short.
5. 1K Shib Perp - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (172LM2) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +42.3 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.09 points
- Bias Score: 0.59
- Positioning Percentile: 50.0
- Crowding State: moderate crowding
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Positioning is noticeable but not yet extreme.
Flip Alerts
1. E-Mini S&P Utilities Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET LONG this week
2. Micro Bitcoin - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
3. Micro E-Mini Djia (X$0.5) - Chicago Board Of Trade: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
4. Nyiso.West_Month_On_Dap - Nodal Exchange: Flipped to NET LONG this week
5. Pjm Peco Da Offpk Fixed - Ice Futures Energy Div: Flipped to NET LONG this week
Extreme Positioning Warnings
1. S&P 500: 10th percentile (bearish extreme) — Net positioning at 10th percentile (historically low)
2. US 10Y Note: 92th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 92th percentile (historically high)
3. 1K Shib - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc: 100th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 100th percentile (historically high)
4. 2 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade: 7th percentile (bearish extreme) — Net positioning at 7th percentile (historically low)
5. Aeco Fin Basis - Ice Futures Energy Div: 100th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 100th percentile (historically high)
Crowding Analysis
No crowding warnings today.
Cross-Asset Summary
Across tracked markets: 163 showing bullish positioning (>+20 signal), 38 showing bearish positioning (<-20 signal). See the heatmap for detailed breakdown by asset class.
Today's Watchlist
- Flips to watch: E-Mini S&P Utilities Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Micro Bitcoin - Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Micro E-Mini Djia (X$0.5) - Chicago Board Of Trade
- Extreme positioning: S&P 500, US 10Y Note, 1K Shib - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc
Signal data: May 18, 2026
CFTC COT report: May 12, 2026