Market Positioning Brief: April 24, 2026
Good morning. Mixed sentiment in the macro backdrop as we review the latest institutional positioning from CFTC data. Today's briefing covers 435 markets with a focus on significant positioning changes, flip signals, and extreme readings that may indicate crowded positioning.
Top Positioning Movers
1. Dogecoin - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (168DC1) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: -31.5 (state: bearish)
- Weekly Change: -1.63 points
- Bias Score: -0.76
- Positioning Percentile: 6.5
- Crowding State: elevated crowding
- Reasoning: Bearish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Crowding is elevated, so conviction is high but squeeze risk is rising.
2. Pjm Peco Da Offpk Fixed - Ice Futures Energy Div (0643D1) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +41.0 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.27 points
- Bias Score: 0.95
- Positioning Percentile: 93.6
- Crowding State: crowded long
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded long.
3. Pjm.Aps_Month_On_Dap - Nodal Exchange (064DMY) 📈 Bullish
- Signal Score: +41.0 (state: bullish)
- Weekly Change: +1.23 points
- Bias Score: 1.00
- Positioning Percentile: 100.0
- Crowding State: crowded long
- Reasoning: Bullish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are supporting the current positioning. Traders are heavily crowded long.
4. 1K Shib Perp - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (172LM2) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: -16.5 (state: neutral)
- Weekly Change: -1.17 points
- Bias Score: -0.37
- Positioning Percentile: 50.0
- Crowding State: balanced
- Reasoning: Bearish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Positioning looks balanced rather than crowded.
5. Avalanche - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc (171LM1) 📉 Bearish
- Signal Score: -13.7 (state: neutral)
- Weekly Change: -1.12 points
- Bias Score: -0.47
- Positioning Percentile: 79.4
- Crowding State: moderate crowding
- Reasoning: Bearish positioning is building. Price trend is flat, so momentum is not adding much confirmation yet. Macro conditions are fighting the current positioning. Positioning is noticeable but not yet extreme.
Flip Alerts
1. EUR/USD: Flipped to NET LONG this week
2. Cotton No. 2 - Ice Futures U.S.: Flipped to NET LONG this week
3. E-Mini S&P Consu Staples Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET LONG this week
4. E-Mini S&P Energy Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET SHORT this week
5. E-Mini S&P Health Care Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Flipped to NET LONG this week
Extreme Positioning Warnings
1. US 10Y Note: 97th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 97th percentile (historically high)
2. 10 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade: 1th percentile (bearish extreme) — Net positioning at 1th percentile (historically low)
3. 1K Shib - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc: 100th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 100th percentile (historically high)
4. 2 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade: 6th percentile (bearish extreme) — Net positioning at 6th percentile (historically low)
5. 5 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade: 3th percentile (bullish extreme) — Net positioning at 3th percentile (historically low)
Crowding Analysis
No crowding warnings today.
Cross-Asset Summary
Across tracked markets: 144 showing bullish positioning (>+20 signal), 41 showing bearish positioning (<-20 signal). See the heatmap for detailed breakdown by asset class.
Today's Watchlist
- Flips to watch: EUR/USD, Cotton No. 2 - Ice Futures U.S., E-Mini S&P Consu Staples Index - Chicago Mercantile Exchange
- Extreme positioning: US 10Y Note, 10 Year Eris Sofr Swap - Chicago Board Of Trade, 1K Shib - Coinbase Derivatives, Llc
Signal data: April 24, 2026
CFTC COT report: April 7, 2026